Some Thoughts On The Draft

• The Oilers, Islanders, Red Wings, Blackhawks, Panthers, Senators and Blues had great drafts. 

• Guys I wanted but we didn't get: Dougie Hamilton, Mark McNeill, Boone Jenner, Ryan Sprool, Kale Kessy, Justin Sefton, Jeremy Boyce Rotrall and Myles Bell. 

• Guys I wanted that we DID get: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oskar Klefbom, David Musil, Samu Perhonen and Tobias Rieder. 

• Some guys that have a little risk for some potential reward: Travis Ewanyk and Dillon Simpson.

• A guy we took that I didn't know anything about coming into the draft , but that I'm already starting to like: Martin Gernat. 

• A late pick I know even less about ( but am looking forward to getting to know) : Frans Tuohimma. 

  
EDIT: ALSO I nailed the top 6 in my mock, check it out here 


I'm headed to the lake for a week starting tonight and will be back with more thoughts on many Oilers related items such as a more thorough draft review, our new depth chart,  a prospect ranking by position ( and perhaps overall ) and other goodies.

I hope we finalize the Smyth deal (soon). I know we have something of a break from serious hockey for a while but I look forward to sharing more of my thoughts soon!

WELCOME FRANS TUOHIMAA!!!!

Welcome FRANS TUOHIMAA, a 6'2 goalie that played for Jokerit Jr in Finland. the 182nd overall selection of the Edmonton Oilers!!!  Welcome to the Taylor Gang!

WELCOME MARTIN GERNAT !!!! **EDIT: NEW INFO**

I don't know who you are yet but I bet you know the Taylor Gang!  You've just been sponsored to join it!  WELCOME, drafted by Edmonton at 122 overall!

Edit: For some good information on see Kirk Luedeke's interview with Red Line Report Czech/Slovak scout Radim Jelinek here.

The key information:

"Radim Jelinek: I won´t be surprised if [Peter] Ceresnak is first and the only one Slovak still playing in Europe selected in June in Minnesota. However I´m not a big fan of him and I´m personally much more interested in 6-4 tall D from Kosice Martin Gernat who also belongs into the group of sleepers I mentioned in previous answer. Gernat is a smooth skater with fluid stride and decent footwork for his size. Has very good vision and hands, moves the puck well, handles the puck with confidence making solid decision with puck. Likes to join the rush regularly and shows good instinct in sliding from the point into scoring positions. Just started developing physical play in his game, still very inconsistent using his body, needs to play aggressive, physical game all the time. When he uses it then he is tough to beat 1 on 1, angles forwards to the outside, tights forward up at the boards, hits hard. Lacks strength right now and still growing but has frame to fill it out. D-zone coverage is still very average, needs to read the play better defensively, improve positional play and play much tighter game. Very raw but I like his progress throughout the season and see some similar things in his game as in Martin Marincin´s. He is far from him as Marincin was first rounder in my eyes while Gernat is later-round pick but upside is there." 

WELCOME TOBIAS RIEDER !!!!!

RW 5'10 169, Kitchener, 65-23-26-49-35pim of German heritage.  Fast and works hard.  Drafted 114 by Edmonton!  WELCOME TO THE TAYLOR GANG!

WELCOME DILLON SIMPSON!!!!

Son of former Oiler Craig Simpson!!!!!!!! Drafted at 92nd by the Oilers!

WELCOME TRAVIS EWANYK!!!!!!!

WELCOME TRAVIS EWANYK!!!!!!! Drafted 74 overall by our Edmonton Oilers!  An Oil King to the Oilers!!!!

Keegan Lowe picked one pick earlier to Carolina!

WELCOME SAMU PERHONEN !!!!!

MY 3RD RANKED GOALIE DRAFTED BY OILERS!!!!

My pick at 62

Myles Bell?

WELCOME DAVID MUSIL !!!!

IMO a better pick than Plante at 15 in 2007.  If you are going to draft this player type, here is where you do it and you take a safer pick.  Will be a player *thumbs up* !

My Short List at 31

1. Scott Mayfield - Best defensemen left, American, faller in the rankings through the year

2. Boone Jenner - Captain material, I understand he's like a Canadian Lander

3. Rocco Grimaldi - Best offensive talent left

4. Victor Rask - risk/reward pick

5. Brandon Saad - Big faller in the rankings from the beginning/middle of the year, American power forward

6. David Musil - safe defensemen

7. Ryan Sprool - risk/reward pick

8. John Gibson - best goalie available

9. Thomas Jurco - best puck skills of any player left

10. Shane Prince - all offense no defense

honorable mention: Ty Rattie

The day after

I had a fun time watching the draft, analyzing the picks and trades.  Maybe too much fun.  But I'm back for day 2.  Did we get Smyth?  More to come as well as my top picks for E-Town at 31.

Edit: For sake of ease, there are a bunch of the best suggestions being posted by Scott Reynolds over at the Copper n' Blue here.  And lowetide has a good one here

Also check out my Final Prospect Rankings to get an idea of who the BPA's are.

WELCOME OSKAR KLEFBOM!!!! (Champagne, Whiskey and Beer)

Top 4 defensemen too!!!!

Off the board!

Mark Scheifele was selected almost 6 picks higher than almost anyone had him to Winnipeg.  Unfortunately this doesn't help the Oilers if they keep their pick at 19.

Continued Edit: Way I see it, they wanted a centre, wanted a Canadian, didn't want Couturier and thought Scheifele was the best western kid. I guess not a terrible pick.

Maybe Hemsky to Jersey?

Only big move that I could anticipate (involving Hemsky anyways).

RNH, Hoppie, The Nuge, Welcome to the Taylor Gang!!!

 

 WELCOME RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS!!!!

(Wait for the beat to drop)

Last year when we lost, it was with this destiny ahead.

And that destiny was to Drop Wins for Hopkins!

Welcome Back RYAN SMYTH!!!! or soon at least?

Moments before we we pick first, we have re-acquired Ryan Smyth!  This is a huge day for the righting of the hockey world!  Things feel really positive in Edmonton today!

EDIT : DEAL NOT CLOSED YET?  OUCH! 

Calm before the Storm

There will be big news tonight, even if it's just the order of the picks ( something tells me more though ).

Thoughts:

• Maybe Edmonton would pass on Joe Morrow at 19 because he is from Edmonton.  Hope we can get Klefbom, Brodin, Beaulieu or Oleksiak.  If not go for a forward.

• I would like to see the Winnipeg franchise called The Falcons, as in the fighter jet, the F-16 Fighting Falcon.  The Jets died in the desert.  The team can even be nicknamed "the jets" and they use an historical Manitoba hockey team name.  That being said my 2nd choice is Jets. 

• I want Hamilton more than Larsson, here at the end of the road. 

• We must keep the Smyth thing in perspective.  If he goes to Calgary, it will be remembered when when Edmontonions look back at Ryan's career as an Oiler all-time.  Maybe even Doug Weight will look like a better Oiler in the long run.  I love them both and they are equals now.  Honestly the future is here now and it looks better then much of the past.

Christmas Morning

This day has been my favourite hockey day of the year for probably the fifth straight year now... Well the first regular season game last year was pretty good too, but this is where it all starts.  Good luck MBS, Steve Tambo, K-Lowe, the Oilers organization and us all.

I took today and tomorrow off work (my vacation is about to start on Sunday but these were THE most important days for me to have off).  I'll be heading out to the lake after tomorrows rounds and barring me getting my hands on an Ipad or laptop today I may not be posting much after that point for about a week.  For the next 2 days though, you can bet I'll be near my computer, television, radio and beer fridge.

A note regarding todays trades:

I still have Dougie Hamilton in the 8 spot on my mock draft, just to Philly now.  Two more Team Canada members out west to destroy us for a few years.

Smyth may go to Calgary....( *barf )

What a conflict this would present.

If Ryan Smyth was willing to play in the battle of Alberta for the Flames, I might have to boo him.  Maybe he's ok with that, considering we let him go, but I'm not.  This might be "one of those things" that I have to do.

Kevin Lowe better not find his way onto the jumbo-tron that night or he's in for an earful too!  "YOU SEE THIS, K-LOWE?  THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T HAVE NICE THINGS!" (like good free agents, or winning teams.)  I'm not a huge K-Lowe hater usually, but this would be wrong on all kinds of levels!

I might have to boo Ryan Smyth....  I'm in shambles over the mere thought.  I might cry while booing but, I'd boo.

What a mess.

Mock top 12 ( Boo Calgary )

I'm going to take a stab at predicting some of the draft here. I believe that I've got a good feel for a lot of the early teams but in the teens I start to be less specific.  I'm hoping to make up my mind before Friday but here is a sample of what's to come, where I'm leaning (and why) and give perspective into the logic and process of elimination in deciding what I decided.

To see some of my earlier thoughts on the draft see my Skeleton Mock Darft or you can check out my my Final Prospect Rankings.

1. Edmonton Oilers

Ryan Nugent Hopkins -

• WHL scoring phenom from the same town as Joe Sakic.  
• Playing in Red Deer next best thing to right in town.  
• Lit up the Edmonton team in the playoffs (and apparently the Oil Kings didn't do that bad a job defending him, how's that possible?).  
• Had a strong back half, including going on a tirade for a few weeks. 
• Had a great final few games of the regular season.  
• Rated #1 overall everywhere. 
• Plays centre.  
• Comparisons to Datsyuk (Oilers love the idea of looking like Detroit and Datsyuk is probably the 2nd best forward on Earth).
• He's humble, says the right things, is a "regular kid" who is well mannered and extremely good at hockey.  
• Room to fill out still.  
• Is the guy they should take.

2. Colorado Avalanche

Gabriel Landeskog - Forsberg sold Colorado on swedes but they haven't had much opportunity to get quality Swedish help... until now.  A modern version of Sakic/Forsberg with Duchene/Landeskog is too much to pass up.


3. Florida Panthers

Jonathan Huberdeau - A dynamic phenom much like Hopkins.  Florida needs to get a star and Huberdeau's it.  They took care of defense with Gudbranson last year.


4. New Jersey Devils

Adam Larsson - Lou Lamerello seems to like to build through defense and Adam Larsson will provide that at least.


5. New York Islanders

Ryan Strome - Another Centre so they have a 1-2 with Tavares.  They are doing ok with young wingers and defense.

  
6. Ottawa Senators

Mika Zibanejad - I've heard this name here a lot. Alfredson would be a great mentor for this kid.


7. Winnipeg

Sean Couturier - What a name for Winnipeg to get in their first draft year.  They look good on the back end anyway.  A big name.  A splash.  A good pick for that franchise.


8. Columbus Blue Jackets

Dougie Hamilton - They took a stud centre last year in Johansen.  Stud D here.  Where ever Columbus moves will have a good team ( I kid ).


9. Boston Bruins (via Toronto)

Ryan Murphy - The puck moving D-man they need.  Modern Bobby Orr comparisons begin here (plus they took Seguin last year)


10. Minnesota Wild

Mark McNeill - They need depth help everywhere but maybe down the middle most.  They wanted a goal scorer but the real high end goal scoring centres are gone and and McNeill is the best centre left.


11. Colorado Avalanche (via St. Louis)

Oskar Klefbom - Colorado gets a Swedish mate for Landeskog to grow up with and addresses both wing and defense with their picks.  Bet they are happy.


12. Carolina Hurricanes

Nathan Beaulieu - I think they get a puck moving blueliner here and I think either Beaulieu or Brodin are the best ones left.  They take the North American kid.


13. Calgary Flames

I don't know what Calgary does here.  They need so much help everywhere.  There is still so much here.  They wanted Mark McNeill almost for sure but I have him gone.  I hope they take Duncan Siemens - I hope. Please take him out of the Oilers way.  They can have a new Phaneuf and we can get someone who plays better offensively.  Other candidates are: Mark Scheifele, Jamieson Oleksiak, Joel Armia, Sven Bartschi, Rocco Grimaldi, Boone Jenner, Scott Mayfield, Tyler Biggs,  Brandon Saad and Nicklas Jensen.


14. Dallas Stars

Basically they like the same list as Cow Town.


15. New York Rangers

Same plus add Matt Puempel, Zack Phillips and Ty Rattie names to the list of possibles here.


16. Buffalo Sabres

Add Thomas Jurco and Joe Morrow's names here.


17. Montreal Canadiens

Add Phillip Danault for this spot for obvious reasons.


18. Chicago Blackhawks

The guy we want goes here in all cruel likelihood.  Also add  Jonas Brodin's name as a possibility here.



19. Edmonton Oilers (via Los Angeles)

A pick out of what ever is left of that group minus Zack Phillips and Phillip Danault.  I hope we choose well.



Total cop out between 13 and 19, I know,  but I wanted to give you an idea of what it really looks like from my perspective.  I feel really good that if no team trades their pick / no other major hockey moves happen for these teams in the next 2 days, my top 12 are solid.  If I was more of a betting man I might place money on 1-12.  Cow Town really screws everything here though because their needs are so many and their drafting record a little shabby.  I think they shy away from Armia a little and Brodin a lot after the Tim Erixon fiasco.

"Consolation Day" approaches

"i can't lose anything
so what's left is mine
and I win this time

consolation day
i'll make up a way
i'll know now just what to say

i'll get away from you
wait and I'll be begging
i'll pull you down

i saw it all again
fading memory became clear to me
i try but I can't say
that I'm yours for good
support me you said you would

i'll get away from you
wait and I'll be begging
i'll pull you down

awake and dreaming
 I'm only sleeping"

- Scott Anderson of Finger Eleven. From the album "Tip" circa 1998

This is before Finger Eleven, a west coast Canadian Rock group, changed their sound and became somewhat commercial.  They lost a lot of soul between 2000 and 2003 and even more after 2003.

I'm having trouble getting enough sleep.  I'm involved in Draft Hysteria.  I'm reading everything, before it becomes stale (news changes by the hour now, seemingly) and also trying to invest my time, for the first time, in reporting my side of things.

But the truth is I'm Excited with a capital "E".  This draft could be enough to cement the Oilers as "the next team".  I also would have to say part of me has a sense of anticipation that is less than positive.  I think that the future of this franchise, as far as reaching our upper limit, could be drastically altered at the draft if the team management doesn't keep calm.  I didn't feel this last year.  I had zero doubt that the Oilers would a) pick first, b) make an exceptional selection and c) not screw around.  Today I would like to say I'm about 90% sure of those things.  I sure hope those 10% feelings are unjustified.

I want "my" players this year.  If we do things right this year, we go from walking to running.  Before Taylor Hall we were having trouble getting to our feet.  If we maybe make some decisions that are a little "rash", we could be stalling progress (not regressing mind you, but still, I want things done right). By 2013 - 2014 I want to have Lord Stanley's Mug squarely in our sights.  A Pittsburgh / Edmonton Final maybe.  I truly believe that Hall is likely to be better than Stamkos.  That's a big suggestion but I believe in the guy.  Team Canada's best players in 2014 could be 1) Sydney Crosby (hopefully he fully recovers from that concussion, best player of this era) and 2) Taylor Hall.  If we can find that guy to pivot Hall and Eberle, watch out.  That being said the back end is where we need the most improvement.

I have not seen enough of Adam Larsson or Dougie Hamilton to say for sure, but I think we need to take a forward 1st.  I would suggest that that guy is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins but I won't be really disappointed if I hear Landeskog, Couturier or Strome's name on Friday at #1.  Obviously we need help at the back end but maybe that will be easier to find with later picks than some would suggest and also, D-men are much more available for trade on free agency than top flight offensive forwards.  In Stu we must all Trust.  And Steve, god help him make the right moves (or no move if that's best).  I feel that you can grab a difference maker with any of the top 25 players I'd say.  At 19 we will be fine if we choose well.  No need to overpay to move that pick up.  31 will be an ok pick too, much like Pitlick last year.  Please don't give away too may bullets Steve, unless you trade multiple body shots for a headshot (i.e. for sure kill shot).  I suppose it is possible to hit one from this distance, but at what cost?

All of this and Ryan Smyth wants back in.  So much to think about, so much to anticipate.  Maybe only fans in Winnipeg have more to think about these days.

$24,869.80 tip given by Bruins to bar staff!

In case you didn't hear, the Boston Bruins Stanley Cup after-party bar tab was upwards of 1.5 beans ( that's $150K).  I herd Jim Rome talking about it on his show this afternoon.  Hilarious. SixteenWins has a great visual on the Bruins Bar tab story here.

Puck Passionate on The Pipeline Show (well kind of)!!!!

 Big thanks to Dean Millard, Guy Flaming and their guest Ross MacLean (the head scout from International Scouting Services)!!!!

PuckPassionate.blogspot.com got a shout out on the show today right at the end of the 2-hour draft preview show!  Thanks again guys, the show has been a great resourse for learning about this years prospects!

I also got a quick question in with Ross earlier in the show! (I asked about Boone Jenner)

Obviously I'm a fan.  I rarely get to listen live and usually download their show from their amazing online show archive and listen to it on my ipod.

Edit: You can download that show here.

2011 NHL Entry Draft Final Prospect Rankings

This is not a mock draft.  This is an evaluation of the prospects potential overall impact on the game in the players prime based on available information.

 Here are my Top 65 Ranked: 

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2. Jonathan Huberdeau
3. Adam Larsson
4. Sean Couturier
5. Gabriel Landeskog
6. Dougie Hamilton
7. Ryan Murphy
8. Ryan Strome
9. Mika Zibanejad
10. Sven Bartschi
11. Joel Armia
12. Nathan Beaulieu
13. Mark McNeill
14. Oskar Klefbom
15. Mark Scheifele
16. Jamieson Oleksiak
17. Joseph Morrow
18. Jonas Brodin
19. Nicklas Jensen
20. Duncan Siemens
21. Scott Mayfield
22. Rocco Grimaldi
23. Matt Puempel
24. Brandon Saad
25. Thomas Jurco
26. Alexander Khokhlachev
27. Tyler Biggs
28. Dmitri Jaskin
29. Zach Phillips
30. Ty Rattie
31. Stefan Nosen
32. Vladislav Namestnikov
33. Victor Rask
34. Boone Jenner
35. David Musil
36. Ryan Sprool
37. Ricard Rakell
38. Daniel Catenacci
39. Connor Murphy
40. Mario Lucia
41. Shane Prince
42. Myles Bell
43. John Gibson
44. Marcel Nobels
45. Tyler Wotherspoon
46. Ramus Bengtsson
47. Phillip Danault
48. Adam Clendening
49. Lucas Lessio
50. Robbie Russo
51. J.T. Miller
52. Brett Ritchie
53. Christopher Gibson
54. Seth Ambrose
55. Xavier Ouellet
56. Stuart Percy
57. Mikka Salomaki
58. Marcus Grunland
59. Joel Edmundson
60. Reece Scarlett
61. Vincent Trocheck
62. Colin Jackobs
63. Mattew Nieto
64. Nick Shore
65. Samu Perhonen

SOME LATER PROSPECTS OF SPECIFIC INTEREST

Kale Kessy

Jeremy Boyce Rotrall

Michael St. Croix

Nick Cousins

Jordan Binnington

Not as much background as on other sites so see Lowetide and Bruins Draft Watch for good player descriptions.  Also I would buy a copy of The Hockey News Draft Preview 2011.  If you want to be a real nerd, listen to the team 1260 all day, everyday (almost) and the Dan Tencer Show on CHED, all of which are available on the links lists.  

I've spent a lot of time mulling over the options and as such am fairly satisfied with my list.  I'm a dedicated draft observer but by no means a scout.  I started following the draft closely for the first time in 2007 and had Sam Gagner circled and then when it came time for the Oilers to pick I had him as the BPA.  With my early success (and Gagner's) I was inspired to follow the draft from that day forward.  Since then I have had nearly the exact same experience for Paarjavi, Eberle, Hall and Pitlick.  Last year was the first year I spent much time beyond the first round hopefuls and as such when I herd about our later round selections (I was at the on the way to the Lake for the 2nd round last year and couldn't get control of the radio in the car) I was familiar with most of our selections. I'm hoping to extend my reach this year into the 3rd round.  Hope you enjoy. 

EDIT: My initial rankings can be found here.~~~~~ It was my first post on this blog! 

The Perfect Storm?

It's been raining in Edmonton for what seems like weeks, and sometimes when it rains, it pours.
And sometimes things get crazy.
Could Edmonton load up for a crazy cup run as soon as this year?  It's not impossible... but it's a reach.

It's sounds like a good idea/bad idea. Everyone likes the Oilers and winning in the same sentence, but it looks like we're trying to force it too hard in some ways, kinda like Colorado with Foote and Forsberg in 2007–08.  It's not like me to entertain foolish nonsense or people suggesting "Well we should trade for (insert persons favorite player/ media flavor player of the month here)".  Trust me, (you'll have to likely as this blog is new) I am NOT a guy who would EVER suggest that we should rush things.

To this point it's been my belief that this team will be a lock as a  playoff team in say the 2013-2014 season with it's current look.  Before that is gravy and after that we're hoping to keep moving forward to become a perennial strong contender for the cup.  Come about 2014-2015 some of the stronger picks from the Stu MacGregor era will require new contracts and Hall Eberle and Paarjavi may already be signed to higher end money so our future gets blurry.

But things have been starting to get interesting.  Really, is it possible that we in Edmonton, as conservative as everyone (the media, the fans) have been with expectations for this team, that we have missed the bigger picture forming around us?  It's a long shot even still, but the evidence mounts.  In the back of your mind, you should be aware that these things are happening.

Evidence:

1) Jagr

April 30th 2009 - article here

"If I ever go to (the NHL), they would be my No. 1 pick because they showed the interest first. I never forget that and I respect that. They would be my first pick." - Jaromir Jagr


 June 21st, 2011 artical here

"Jaromir Jagr appears NHL-bound and it's only a question of which team he'll sign with, his agent told ESPN.com on Tuesday morning.

Agent Petr Svoboda said Pittsburgh, Detroit "plus another team I can't name" are the three options for his veteran client."

  
We all know Jagr and Hemsky have a friendship and mutual respect.  I believe Hemsky would need to remain an Oiler for this part to happen.  Edmonton has  Jagr would also know what's happening here in Edmonton with all the quality young talent and know he doesn't necessarily have to be the go to guy while still being a difference maker.

2) Smyth

June 20th, 2011 - article here

"sources tell TSN the 35-year-old left winger has indicated to the Kings his preference would be to play next season in Edmonton if a trade can be worked out." 

The report is denied by Smyth here

But confirmed here

3) Salary Cap Room

Cap geek committed numbers here.  Bottom line we're sitting with $22,150,000 with

A list of UFA's can be found here and a list of RFA's can be found here

Keep in mind our RFA's are:
Ladislav Smid, Theo Peckham, Andrew Cogliano, Taylor Chorney, Ryan O’Marra, Zack Stortini, Jean-Francois Jacques, Kevin Montgomery, Matt Marquardt, Jordan Bendfeld and Bryan Pitton.

4) High Draft Picks in Deep Draft

The Oilers draft picks are
1st, 19th, 31st, 62nd, 74th, 92nd, 114th, 122nd and 182nd as they sit now.  The first 5 picks should be good prospects at least.  1 and or 19 could play this season depending on the players.  Plus there is speculation of us trying to move up.

I don't know which players with trade value move if we keep Hemsky.  Not much comes to mind.  Gagner, Cogliano, Brule, Gilbert.... How much value is there and would it be worth moving?  Am I missing something/one?

5) We already broke in the rookies, successfully

Hall, Eberle and Paarjavi are tracking (very) well.

Bottom line the waters are not still.

You better mean it, Bob

Don't pull my heart strings needlessly.

A word about the process

Bob McKenzie is a smart man with a reputation for accurate predictions.  His list is not a list of the top prospects as he states here.  These are the key lines:

"Finally, a word about the process used to determine these rankings.


This is not a subjective analysis of who TSN believes will develop into the best prospects or the order that they should be taken. It's not a scouting report, per se.


It is a more objective numerical ranking based on the consensus of opinion gathered from 10 NHL scouts, a barometer of where we think a player is most likely to be taken in the draft."

This is something to consider when deciding what we believe to be a good pick or not.  Just because J.T. miller cracked the top 30 does not mean he is one of the 30 best prospects, just that it's highly likely that someone will take him in the 2nd half of the first round (my bet is Toronto if he's still available).

Looks like Connor Murphy is on the edge and Bob acknowledges this by placing him 30th.  Injurys are a large concern.  A Curtis Hamilton type of situation?  Maybe more like Brett Connolly (in regards to to injury situation in the draft year)?

Connor Murphy moving up.

I always wanted to move Conner Murphy up based on his skills, 2-way game, size, stregnth, speed and timing  reportedly shown in his his strong (although limited) viewings.  Injurys are also a consideration with this prospect and back issues can kill a career early (see J.F. Jacques).

After getting such a good review from Bob McKenzie in his final player ranking for the 2011 Entry Draft, I'm sold enough to move him up past two very good and physical shutdown d-men in Ramus Bengtsson and  Tyler Wotherspoon and now would consider him a valuable selection for any team in the 20-30 range... basicly outside what I'd like to see the Oilers take at 19 but in the conversation for 31 should he be there.

Is Rask realistic?

Victor Rask sounds like he'll be available at 19 and maybe even at 31.  A skilled Centre for Paarjavi?  I understand we already have Lander, but his game is more 2-way and Rask may have more high end skill. Also why not stock the shelves?  Rask may really be worth a look at 31 to fill out the depth chart up the middle.

I would have to probably pass at 19 but I think at 31 he should be long considered if he's there.  Too Soon? Will he even be available?.

Defensemen in the Draft

This is an Oilers specific target list, considering what WE should want in conjunction with his rankings.

I believe the Oilers should target their defensemen in this order:

1. Adam Larsson
2. Dougie Hamilton
3. Ryan Murphy
4. Nathan Beaulieu
5. Joe Morrow
6. Oskar Klefbom
7. Jamie Oleksiak
8. Duncan Siemens
9. Scott Mayfield
10. Jonas Brodin
11. Ryan Sprool
12. David Musil
13. Myles Bell
    
    Beyond that should not be considered for a top 31 selection.  We should pick a forward at 31 if all these guys are gone, even if we haven't picked a D-man yet.
     
14. Tyler Wotherspoon
15. Ramus Bengtsson
16. Connor Murphy
17. Adam Clendening
18. Robbie Russo
19. Xavier Ouellet
20. Stuart Percy
21. Joel Edmundson 

Fourteen through 21 look to be solid in the 2nd round.  Forwards for the early rounds to be broken down soon.

Black and Yellow and next years 1st

The Boston Bruin's must feel pretty good right now. Tyler Seguin (a good kid and very good hockey player that's only getting better) can now feel comfort that going 2nd wasn't as bad as maybe it looked like at the draft last year.  I remember him looking disappointed.  "For every door that closes, another opens" or so the saying goes, I believe.  I wonder if this motivates Hall at all?  A little?

More likely Taylor Hall Has all the internal motivation he needs, and will become the player we all believe is possible sooner rather than later.  Why would I say that (it invites disappointment)?  Well I believe it.  His player type tends to trend well early in the career, sometimes meaning he'll be less effective at 34 than 21 or 22 (give or take a Teemu Selanne).

Does this mean the Oilers will be a far better team next year with a rapidly developing superstar, already the best player on the team?

In a word, "no".

Next year I believe the Oilers will suffer from lack of depth, injuries, and young quality players that can't keep up with the development of Hall.  Next year I expect to draft in the single digits, meaning with Stu MacGregor at the helm we can continue to built on our young depth.  Most of the players I expect to be on our contending team that are already in our system are 22 or younger.  Many under 20.

As we know a team of 20 year olds rarely if ever has success and playing those players in the NHL too early could sully their development.  So we must wait, with veteran players that are injury prone and/or can pull their weight.

I don't like dealing draft picks. Even in situations where it's to acquire a better draft pick or a proven player, in some cases I have reservations, and I like to pick over everything.  I like acquiring draft picks but we must be cautious of loosing too much of our veteran depth.  We may actually be at or beyond that point already.

I'm on the fence with trading Hemsky, I must say, and I don't like loosing too many bullets even if it means a better one.  I'll likely be critical of any trade involving our 1st pick next year.  
 "For every door that closes, another opens."
If we miss out on something this year, something comparable may be there next year and we're not out of good draft territory yet.

Skeleton Mock Draft

I don't even pretend to know where everyone will go in this years draft but have started with this skeleton base of knowledge.  If I really like a prospect in a place I'll bold them.  If I think there's a good chance but things might get in the way, I'll italicize them.  Here are some of my inklings:

1. Edmonton Oilers

Ryan Nugent Hopkins -  I think there is enough evidence present to be fairly sure here.  Larsson has an outside chance.

2. Colorado Avalanche

Landeskog or Larsson - I don't think Colorado will take Huberdeau.  Forsberg sold Colorado on swedes but they haven't had much opportunity to get quality Swedish help... until now.  A modern version of Sakic/Forsberg with Duchene/Landeskog might be too much to pass up.

3. Florida Panthers

I haven't got much of a read here. Florida needs help everywhere. Last year they took Gudbranson 3rd but have yet to sign him.  Is he available?  I wish I knew.  But don't count on Florida to blow the pick like they may have in years past.  Huberdeau would be likely I should think.

4. New Jersey Devils

Again, not quite sure.  Parise issues, Kovalchuck and lack of top end defense make murky waters here.  Who knows if they even keep the selection.  I've heard Larsson here a lot though.

5. New York Islanders

Another organization that needs help everywhere.  I think maybe they lean towards a defensemen if they consider need highest but the forwards available here are still probably the better options. Maybe Murphy or Huberdeau if he's available go here.

6. Ottawa Senators

Mika Zibanejad - assuming he has not been chosen yet, this is where I think he's going.

7. Winnipeg

No idea.

8. Columbus Blue Jackets

They probably trade this pick.

9. Boston Bruins (via Toronto)

Nathan Beaulieu - Would make sense here for Boston.  Or maybe a winger for Seguin like Bartschi, but I think Boston is deeper up front so they'll lean towards the Blue.

10. Minnesota Wild

Mark McNeill - He's what they need.  If he's there I think they'll take him. Brandon Saad looks good here too.  Would they stretch and take Mario Lucia here, or risk a pick on Seth Ambrose?  They're from Minnesota.

11. Colorado Avalanche (via St. Louis)

Oskar Klefbom - This is the guy that has me leaning towards Landeskog being taken 2nd.  I think Colorado will take a pair of Swedish players in the first.  Maybe only Scott Mayfield could leave them waiting until the last second to decide. Darkhorse Nick Shore.

12. Carolina Hurricanes

I think they wanted Beaulieu.  Maybe a different d-man will do but unless he's there I don't know.  Maybe instead they'll take an American forward like Grimaldi or Saad.  Puck mover on the back end is what they want though I think.  Is Connor Murphy too much of a stretch?

13. Calgary Flames

Duncan Siemens - I think they wanted Mark McNeill (like almost 20 other teams will have) but they'll take a new Dion Phanuff.  Calgary will almost for sure take a WHL kid unless there is a top end talent still available.

14. Dallas Stars

An American forward.  Grimaldi or Saad would be good choices but they may take a Texas kid like Stefan Noesen or Colin Jacobs.

15. New York Rangers

Not sure at all. Is Shane Prince or Adam Clendening a stretch? Probably but with Prince maybe not.

16. Buffalo Sabres

A forward here too, I think. Matt Puempel's name should start coming up around here.

17. Montreal Canadiens

Help up front, I would imagine. How about Phillip Danault?

18. Chicago Blackhawks

Probably what ever guy we all think would be great for the Oilers and is still left over after Montreal will be swiped away.  I fear that 19 may be one pick too late.  Boone Jenner maybe.

19. Edmonton Oilers (via Los Angeles)

I think Joe Morrow would be a great fit here, more offense then Siemens I gather.  Hope he's available.

20. Phoenix Coyotes

Not Sure.

21. Ottawa Senators (via Nashville)

Don't really know.  I'll Guess maybe Zach Phillips.

22. Anaheim Ducks

An American forward I will guess.  How about Grimaldi or Matthew Nieto.

23. Pittsburgh Penguins

I think maybe Nicklas Jensen goes here if he's available. They want a goal scoring winger.  They would love to get Brandon Saad but I think he's gone by here. Highly rated Pennsylvania products Vincent Trocheck and John Gibson may be in the discussion.

24. Detroit Red Wings

Jonas Brodin - Detroit will make everyone look stupid for not taking him.

26. Washington Capitals

Alexander Khokhlachev - Is he a lock here?  I think it might be close. Maybe Dmitri Jaskin gives him a run for his money. Darkhorse Ricard Rakell.

27. Tampa Bay Lightning

Defense is a priority, but I also like Rocco Grimaldi here. Maybe he's already gone.

28. San Jose Sharks

Defense is a priority.

29. Vancouver Canucks

David Musil - If he's here still or Tyler Wotherspoon.

25. Toronto Maple Leafs (via Philadelphia)
&
30. Toronto Maple Leafs (via Boston)

If they keep both, the names competing for these spots are: J.T. Miller, John Gibson, Tyler Biggs and other lesser Americans that Burke may fancy.  Lucas Lessio, Daniel Catenacci, Brett Ritchie and Boone Jenner may have chances here too.

There are many player's who will be picked in the 1st round whose name I didn't mention.  This is because there is widespread interest in these players and there are still many teams I struggle for a read on.  I'll have an updated mock draft before draft day.

The Pardubice Prince of Edmonton

If you named the top 8 Oilers of all time is might look like this:

1. Wayne Gretzky
2. Mark Messier
3. Jari Kurri
4. Paul Coffey
5. Glen Anderson
6. Grant Fhur
7. Kevin Lowe
8. Craig Simpson

Maybe Esa Tikkanen or Charley Huddy fits in next.  Or maybe not. But the last time any of those players laced up skates was in the NHL was 2004 and as an Oiler you have to go back to 97-98.

I submit a list of the 8 best Oilers (min. 300 games played as Oiler) that only includes players from 98-99 and beyond.

1. Doug Weight
2. Ryan Smyth
3. Ales Hemsky
4. Shawn Horcoff
5. Todd Marchant
6. Janne Niinimaa
7. Boris Mironov
8. Tommy Salo

Maybe you have Eric Brewer in there or realized "Hey, Kelly Buchberger's not there".  Well maybe he should be.
That being said number's one and two on this list are gone.  Number 3 could be on his way out this season and it saddens me as this second list more clearly represents what I know as the Edmonton Oilers.  Of the Oilers on the first list  I have dvd's and highlight clips, books and memorabilia, but see them live, I did not.

I did see every player on that 2nd list.  And I'll be damned if Ales Hemsky did not bring me out of my seat more then any of them.  In a word, "WOW".

I don't know if he still fits.  I would love to see it work somehow but there is too much else going on for me to lay my biggest dreams here.
And so I give myself permission to dream about what Hemsky may yield in return at this years draft.

Possible Returns for Hemsky?:

• 4th Overall from New Jersey - Hemsky is out of the West. We would need to take back salary.  
• Zach Parise from New Jersey - Doubt it but the Devils may be looking to unload him.
• 8th Overall from Columbus - I would want more in return.  Probably the 37th Overall pick.  Maybe even more because Columbus is in the West.  Dorset?  Also we would need to take salary in all likelihood.
• 9th Overall from Boston (from Toronto) -  I would want more and would safely guess salary is coming back here too.  Hemsky is out of the West.
• 12th Overall from Carolina -  Would they be interested in Hemsky? The Hurricanes have the 42nd Overall pick too.
• 15th Overall from New York - Would Slats commit one of his famous overpays here? Dylan McIlrath or Derek Stepan involved perhaps?  Take salary here too.
• Jeff Carter from Philadelphia  - We would need to give more.  I dunno if I'm on board.  Dressing room issues and excessive partying are things we've seen here before.

Pretenders?

Are there prospects in this year's draft class who are being over rated?  How can we tell?

Well a lot has been made about a few of the prospects that, quite simply to me, is too much.

For instance:

Duncan Siemens - Really? Top 15 ish?
Draft resumes for this type of player generally read like so:
Big, won't beat anyone with blazing speed but fast enough for a big guy, simple but effective passes, physical, nasty, defensively sound for the most part but not a power-play presence.

The first round seems like it should be a bit of a stretch for this prospect (for any team I'm drafting for).  Alex Plante types are a dime a dozen.  The development time required for a prospect like this to attain success in the NHL not only varies but usually trends towards requiring a longer road rather a shorter one.  Injury plays a large factor in the career of such a prospect and is more likely to occur playing the type of game he plays.

At best I would consider taking this player as the Oilers with pick 31.  We can do better before then.

A song Worthy of a Champion

Dirk, we are the champions is a great song.

But here is something a little more "fresh"...

Changing Themes and Dropping Wins

By mid January 2010, the Oiler's NHL season took on a title.  It was a hope inspiring theme that gave purpose to the FAIL that the rest of 09-10 was.

That Title was "The Fall for Hall".

This season after some early thoughts of competitiveness were washed away in the storm that was reality, I again searched for our next savior and a theme to grasp and spread.

And so early, after some thought of what to rhyme with "Couturier" (good luck making it work in context) I settled on a new theme:

"The Arson for Larsson! 
(burn another season down) "

And so it was for most, if not all of the season.  We obviously needed (need) a lot of high level help on the back end - and Couturier was flagging.

But in that last few weeks of this season, things started happening, and so things started to change.  I was without theme again, as finally some top end forwards emerged ahead of the rest.

"Oil Flog for Landeskog"?.  No, but there was a brief time around when Hall suggested that maybe Gabriel was making noise out east that I made back-up plans in case of a need to change. But no, further investigation confirmed lack of "dynamic" nature I feel is required to be a legit #1.

So no change yet, but by that point Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was clouding the issue.

I didn't commit my vote to him until after I saw Jonathan Huberdeau at the memorial cup, just in case my western ears mis-heard the case of the kid who was #1a/b with Couturier out of the Q.  Again although impressive, there was not enough to believe he moved ahead of RNH.

And Sean had his chance to really impress as the only draft eligible forward (player?) for Canada at the World Juniors and although he looked like he belonged and was indeed "high end", he showed little in the way of "dynamic" skill.

And so about a month ago (maybe 5 weeks) I took the Burnaby kid's side and now truly believe he is right for the Oilers.  Since then I have struggled to decide what the title of our season, (by that time already finished), really had been.
And 3 days ago it struck me.

Last season, we showed the world how to "Drop Wins for Hopkins".

2011 NHL Entry Draft Prospect Rankings

This is not a mock draft, but instead, an evaluation of the best prospects (imo) regardless of need or position.

The top 65 I've ranked and then I note other prospect of some interest.

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2. Adam Larsson
3. Jonathan Huberdeau
4. Sean Couturier
5. Ryan Strome
6. Gabriel Landeskog
7. Mika Zibanejad
8. Dougie Hamilton
9. Sven Bartschi
10. Ryan Murphy
11. Joel Armia
12. Nathan Beaulieu
13. Mark McNeill
14. Jamieson Oleksiak
15. Matt Puempel
16. Joseph Morrow
17. Nicklas Jensen
18. Mark Scheifele
19. Alexander Khokhlachev
20. Duncan Siemens
21. Zach Phillips
22. Brandon Saad
23. Oskar Klefbom
24. Rocco Grimaldi
25. Scott Mayfield
26. Ty Rattie
27. Dmitri Jaskin
28. Tyler Biggs
29. Stefan Nosen
30. Vladislav Namestnikov
31. Boone Jenner
32. Thomas Jurco
33. Ryan Sprool
34. David Musil
35. Jonas Brodin
36. Marcel Nobels
37. Ricard Rakell
38. Victor Rask
39. Mario Lucia
40. Daniel Catenacci
41. Connor Murphy
42. Shane Prince
43. John Gibson
44. Seth Ambrose
45. Tyler Wotherspoon
46. Ramus Bengtsson
47. Phillip Dandault
48. Adam Clendening
49. Lucas Lessio
50. J.T. Miller
51. Brett Ritchie
52. Myles Bell
53. Xavier Ouellet
54. Stuart Percy
55. Mikka Salomaki
56. Robbie Russo
57. Joel Edmundson
58. Reece Scarlett
59. Marcus Grunland
60. Vincent Trocheck
61. Colin Jackobs
62. Mattew Nieto
63. Nick Shore
64. Christopher Gibson
65. Samu Perhonen
    Flagged - imo
    Most Likely to be picked too soon - imo
    Under-rated?
66. Over-Rated?
    
    
    
    

    LATER PROSPECTS WITH OILER CONNECTIONS

    
    

    Kale Kessy

    Jeremy Boyce Rotrall

    Michael St. Croix

    Travis Ewaynyk

    Dylan Wruck

    Laurent Brossait

    Keegan Lowe

    Dillon Simpson

    
    

    SOME OTHERS OF INTEREST

    
    

    Justin Sefton
    Nick Cousins  

    Scott Oke

    Ryan Tesink

    Mike Reilly

    Andy Welinksi

    Scott Harrington

    Alan Quine

    Adam Lowry

    Adam Reid

    Andrew Pedan

    Colten St. Claire

    Gregory Hoffman

    Oliver Archembault

    Guillam Cloutier

    Jesse Forsberg

    David Broll

    Logan Shaw

    Joseph Labat

    Patrick Koudys

    Sam Grist

    Joseph Cramarossa

    Austen Brassard

    Jonathan Racine

    Andrew Fritsch

    Michael Paliota

    Klas Dhalbeck

    Joachim Nermark

    Max Friberg

    Alexander Ruuto

    Johan Sundstrom

    Jordan Binnington

    Tobias Rieder

    Magnus Hellberg

    Michael Mersch

    Reid Boucher

    Alex Racino

    Adam Petterson

    Daniel Pribyl

    Sean Kuraly

    Maximilien Sieur

    Jean Gabriel Pageau

    Shane McColgan

    Peter Ceresnak

    Jyrki Jukipakka

    Fredrik Claesson

    Henri Auvinen

    Pascal Zerressen

    Victor Bergland

    Zachary Yven

    Colin Sullivan

    Keevin Cutting

    Gabriel Bourret

    Max Everson

    Matt Killian

    Frankie Simonelli

    Artem Sergeev

    
    

    MORE RUSSIANS

    
    

    Zakhar Arzamastev

    Maxim Shalunov

    Nikita Nesterov

    Albert Yarullin

    Alexander Kuvaev

    Nikita Kucherov

I would welcome questions or discussion, I am not a scout but a dedicated draft observer.